How to Use the Iceberg Model for Solving Tough Problems ?
With real-world examples
Welcome to edition #13 of ThoughtShot - a newsletter on purpose-driven leadership.
To make sure you don’t miss the next essay -
I recently broke my Covid-19 imposed travel hiatus and took a two-hour flight.
I ended up next to a Masters's student from a US University who was on a study tour to India.
The next couple of hours flew by as we discovered various common things (like our love for hot chocolate and Korean dramas). In-person conversations are marvellous, isn’t it?
She coincidentally wanted to work in the impact space as well (healthcare particularly). So we exchanged respective learnings and journeys in this sector.
We ended up talking about the iceberg model for solving tough problems. So I thought of writing about it today.
Impact Problems Are Like An Iceberg
Environmental and social challenges are like an iceberg - hard, unmoving, unrelenting, opaque and difficult to break.
In other words, environmental and social problems are wicked and complex. Not completely impossible to solve, but hard.
And this is because a part of the problem is visible. But a lot of parts are invisible as well.
The Iceberg model considers the fact that what we see above water is actually just 10% of the actual iceberg. More than 90% of an iceberg is in fact underwater. Surprisingly however, the way the tip of the iceberg behaves is actually dependent on the part that is submerged in the water.
Impact problems in any sector you can imagine - water, health, sanitation, livelihoods, environment, education, etc. - behave like an iceberg as well.
We are able to see external symptoms (such as low attendance of students in public schools or bad conditions in health service centers). But the cause for these symptoms is deep-rooted - beyond what we can immediately see.
Impact challenges are not due to an isolated single cause, but rather due to a combination of many inter-related causes (such as socio-political-economic factors, behaviours, perceptions and biases). That is what we need to target to create lasting change.
Hence while using systems thinking for solving impact problems, we often use the Iceberg model.
While I am mainly going to use examples of the impact sector, you can use the Iceberg model for solving other tough organizational challenges as well.
Using the Iceberg Model for Problem Solving
Think of any problem statement you are working on.
It could be a problem statement in a project or initiative you are working on in the impact sector. It could even be an organizational-level challenge in fundraising, hiring, culture, DEI, and others.
Now let’s use the iceberg model to think about the problem statement and break it down into Events - Patterns - Structures - Mental Models.
Level 1 - Events
Events are the external, visible symptoms, behaviors, or practices that we see.
To keep it simple, these are the events that we hear about in the news, city, community, workplace, or in the world every day. For example, a particular day being very hot or high attrition rate in an organization.
You can identify the events by asking -
What happened? What am I noticing?
Are there certain behaviors or practices that I can visibly see?
Are there any occurrences, attitudes, or expectations that I observe?
Level 2 - Trends
Trends are changes in variables (such as behaviors, attitudes, and occurrences) that follow a pattern.
These patterns are easy to notice if we just step back from observing the daily events. Patterns are important to notice for making sure that some events are not isolated incidents. Patterns are a series of relationships between events. For example - increasing heatwaves or floods every year, higher number of extreme pollution days in a city, or higher attrition in a particular department of an organization.
You can identify trends by asking -
Are there some events that keep on recurring?
How similar are these events?
How often do they recur?
What are some patterns that I can observe?
Level 3 - Structure
Structures define the rules of the game by having a cause and effect relationship with patterns.
Structures could be formally defined - through rules, guidelines, policies, and the way resources are distributed. Structures could also be informally defined as institutional practices, occurrences, or behaviors. For instance, extreme weather events at certain times of the year, high attrition in teams that have no worklife balance and so on.
You can identify the underlying structures of problems by asking -
Why does this certain trend/pattern seem to happen?
What are the invisible occurrences, reasons, or behaviors for this pattern of events?
Does the pattern of occurrences have a cause-and-effect relationship with anything else?
Level 4 - Mental Models
Mental models are the attitudes, beliefs, morals, expectations, values, or culture that result in the structures and patterns of behavior.
Mental models are the reason why the structures behave a certain way. They are ways of thinking in the main stakeholders of a certain structure. They are often invisible and are the hardest to change. For instance - Cars are presumed by society as indicators of wealth, resulting in people buying cars after reaching a particular economic status, ultimately resulting in increasing pollution levels each year.
You can identify mental models by asking -
Are there any beliefs and assumptions that result in this structure and pattern of events?
Are there any invisible attitudes, perceptions, values or biases that result in this pattern?
How Leaders Can Use the Iceberg Model of Thinking?
This iceberg model of thinking can be a major game-changer while designing solutions at the level of teams, organizations, communities, as well as ecosystems.
As purpose driven leaders, it is important to look beyond common symptoms and find the deeper patterns, structures, and models to drive transformation.
Once you are able to identify what level of problem you are solving, then you can design solutions and interventions accordingly -
Level 1: Solutions to REACT to an event that has happened (eg. announcing city-level shutdown days due to pollution)
Level 2: Solutions in ANTICIPATION of pattern of events that are expected (eg. the odd-even car scheme in Delhi to curb winter pollution)
Level 3: Solution DESIGN to solve for structural challenges (eg. encouraging electric vehicles vs conventional cars)
Level 4: Solutions to TRANSFORM mental models (eg. behaviour change to encourage pedestrianization and cycling)
Making it Real: An Example of the Iceberg Model
A couple of years ago, I was leading a strategic advisory project for an education nonprofit. Their flagship program focused on improving learning outcomes for (literally!) millions of public school children. I learned a lot about the systemic problems in the education sector while working with their team.
One might think that education for all is possible only by providing free education for students i.e. solving the tip-of-the-iceberg problem of cost. But it actually also depends on the access to school, quality of education, availability of teachers, teaching style, school infrastructure, student gender, income and education levels of parents, and many other factors (under the iceberg).
Here is an oversimplified example of breaking down the problem of low learning outcomes for primary school children -
We observed that primary school children were unable to solve certain kinds of Math or English problems [EVENT].
One of the common trends was that most of these students had unfinished learning in the prior grade [TREND].
But teachers were expected to focus on grade-specific learning in class [STRUCTURE]. Due to this, they were unable to explicitly bridge learning gaps from previous years for children.
There are several assumptions and perceptions that resulted in these structures. Children feel uncomfortable repeatedly asking for clarifications as they did not want to be seen as weak by classmates. Curriculums are designed in a way assuming all children learn at the same pace and level and so on. [MENTAL MODELS]
My nonprofit client had chosen to focus one of the solutions on solving the problem of ‘structure’ by designing accelerated learning programs for children who had learning gaps. However, we also helped them think through solutions that could potentially ‘transform’ the education ecosystem.
What is important is the awareness to design the right kind of solutions to tackle the right kind of problems.
As I close for today, I encourage you as managers and leaders to consider how you can use the iceberg model to solve tough problems.
You can start by reflecting on the right questions -
What am I trying to solve?
Am I solving for the symptoms or the underlying causes?
What level of the problem does my proposed intervention target?
What else can I do to help drive transformative action?
That’s all for today folks. Now, go shine!
I enjoyed the practical advice for leaders - great article Roselin!